Leading through conflict means believing in the possibility of what does not yet exist. It requires focusing on the luminous opportunity that lies at the end of the tunnel of obstacles.
Mark Gerzon
So if knowledge is to be of help in eliminating wars, it must be knowledge of ourselves.
Anatol Rapoport
Introduction and focus of the essay
President Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the USA has created an absolute blizzard of global conflicts of various degrees of intensity, national and international debates and arguments across an immense range of local and global topics, and as can be expected, also caused a backlash of uncertainty, condemnation, outrage and reactions across the personal, political and socioeconomic spectrum.
As to the debates on the various policies and operational decisions implemented by president Trump, I personally believe that we could see a few refreshing and long overdue resolutions to important local and global conflicts that have stagnated over the years, and that some meaningful benefit can be gained by the US and several other nations in the process. I am also sceptical as to whether this potential will be applied in a sustained and responsible way, and I anticipate that the net harm for the US will, in the long run, outweigh the short-term real and perceived benefits. But that is a fascinating debate for another day.
I would rather, here in the early weeks of this tsunami of uncertainty, discuss a few conflict management strategies that the South African government can consider in dealing with this seemingly unique phenomenon. In doing so, I am not going to distinguish between the technical differences between conflict management, conflict resolution and conflict transformation, but the skilled practitioner involved in the process will keep a constant eye on the varying technical requirements and opportunities arising from each of these categories.
Ten conflict strategies
1. Relax, and see the patterns
A very clear, and rather brilliant, part of the Trump diplomatic (if we can use the word) strategy is the blitzkrieg nature of some of these events. A firehose of allegations, absurdities and really unconventional diplomatic events are thrown at you, sometimes purposefully breaking rules of decorum and convention. This, as we can see so many examples of, unsettles people and causes instability in preparation and strategizing. Responses and mistakes borne of emotional reactions, outrage and defensive tactics follow, and you start a few metres behind. The good news here is that as unconventional and even bizarre as many of his actions are, they most definitely run on classical conflict principles, some of which have just not been used in a while. Learn to read the golden threads, the principles and the causes, not the symptoms. Do not get pulled into the maelstrom he creates, but also do not think that inaction or delay is a strategy, that is already factored into the attack. You need to create your own maelstrom, your own level of unconventional, and you need to be good at it.
2. Keep an eye on the theatre
There is a conventional cliché, stemming from his first term of office, to “take Trump seriously, but not literally”. There is some truth and value in this. Much of what he says (and even does) is shoot-from-the-hip spontaneous actions and reactions, things that he may or may not mean, issues that may be forgotten by tomorrow morning. Try to not take too much of the sound and fury personally. In particular, and again we have many examples, an early reaction to such an insult may in fact quite unnecessarily escalate a meaningless remark into a crystalized, enduring resentment that affects future negotiations. Try to form a sense of when to respond, and when to ignore. Remember that much of what he says and does is not primarily addressed at you, but at the observers in his base. Trump is a master at these dynamics, and you need to understand them in great detail.
3. Saving face
One of the strongest conflict triggers, enigmatically undervalued in the West, is the phenomenon of face saving, or the better-termed social debits and credits. So many diplomats do not value the science and techniques behind these conflict realities, or regard it as an outdated concept. This is an irresponsible own goal. The concept is, by now, a multi-disciplinary one, of enormous practical use in conflicts. While South Africa is completely an honor-based society, parts of the US could better be described as more individualistic, where personal insults and slights play a more limited role. Trump however, and his power base, are however very much an honour based community, and, as a range of case studies show, considerations of face saving can easily outweigh other, more rational considerations in negotiations or political interpersonal conflicts.
People swayed by these dynamics are quite prepared to harm themselves and their interests in the interests of saving face, or repaying what to them were social debits, in other words, insults that they regarded as offensive. In dealing with negotiators like Trump then, you need to constantly weigh the dynamics of being right in public, and winning points and likes in the process, and causing offense that trigger these face saving dynamics. These are open-ended strategic questions, and should best be approached on a case-by-case basis. Know that your stinging retort, your clever tweet or your public humiliation of operators like these can bring about damage far away from the negotiation table that may outweigh the perceived benefits of satisfying your need to win a short-term tussle. When the situation demands it, and this will mostly be the case, leave the opponent an opportunity to publicly and privately save face, to avoid embarrassment and to continue in constructive ways towards your goals. Keep those golden bridge standing for them to walk back mistakes, rash early utterances and promises, and give them something to claim victory (or a draw) on.
4. Pick your players
Interpersonal dynamics are important in team negotiations and the expression of relationship dynamics, and the conflict dynamics mentioned in our discussion (as a few examples) can cause unnecessary obstacles in reaching consensus and making progress, some of which are quite irrational on the face of it. Learn how to creatively apply these dynamics of putting the right person or team in the room, at the right time. Our national negotiations too often suffer from permanent players insisting on a seat at the table, in a particular instance, when more strategic options were available.
5. Identity conflicts and persuasion
I am not going to repeat my earlier work on identity conflicts, and assume that the reader will have a working knowledge of these conflict realities, or be willing to do the work to get there. Simply put: you are at an enormous and indefensible disadvantage if you and your team have not fully mastered these concepts and techniques, at an advanced a level as possible. Some of the jarring realizations that an understanding of this essential conflict skill bring with it, would include the simple fact that objective facts have a limited range of utility in these conflicts and negotiations, and that the wrong use of those seemingly objective truths are not just ineffective but actively harmful to your goals, leaving your opponent more entrenched, more polarized than before you started all your hard work.
You need to effectively and sustainably persuade people, to understand their thinking processes as well as your own, and to both be able to steer your own teams, as well as to understand and effectively counter subtle and nuanced strategies that are being employed against you and your team, most of which will be completely invisible to the untrained eye. Again, Trump is a masterclass case study in the application of these identity conflict dynamics. The good news is that, in exchange for the work you need to put in here, all of those strategies become transparent, predictable and manageable.
6. Train your teams
As the selected examples in this article hopefully show, modern conflict management at the level needed to compete and win with people like Trump on the other side is very far removed from a book or two by Kissinger and a conflict workshop from the 80s. These skills are available to you, but they require a modern, completely upgraded discipline and skill-set, spanning a range of interlinked disciplines and scientific sources. You cannot muddle through this, and most of your decades of experience is not just useless, but actually harmful. Urgently train all levels of senior ministers and involved team members in these skills, to the point where being not so skilled should disqualify you from further participation in negotiations with people like Trump. The good news: a focused team of designated negotiators can be so upgraded to operational efficiency level in a matter of a few days. Not only should the president and senior or involved ministers be trained to a high degree of conflict competency, but the modern top-tier government should have a dedicated, high-level conflict negotiation team.
7. Show him how to give you what you want
So many of Trump’s opponents make crucial and early mistakes in the framing of their claims and positions, which then hardens the public progress, perceptions and some of the other dynamics we have mentioned. Work with interests versus positions, and dovetail those without too much attention being placed on it. Make it possible and rational for him to give you what you want. This may include problem-solving, targeted concessions and skilful framing, with an above average understanding of timing and sequence of contentious topics and interactions.
8. Have clear boundaries, and enforce them
Modern conflict management at this level has little to do with being polite and accommodating. Neutrality and appeasement can create harmful unresolved conflict cycles, and should really be at the bottom of the conflict toolbox. It follows on this that one should negotiate in an environment where you have clear boundaries set for others, and they should know where these fence-lines run. This includes clear communication, consistent application and an advanced and skilled knowledge of the practical ways in which transgressions of those boundaries should be dealt with, a crucial skill when negotiating with president Trump. This skill should be closely linked to our discussion under the earlier points on the list.
9. Be clear on your own messages and goals
Our government often tries to accommodate disparate and even irreconcilable internal tensions, interests and positions in its outward-facing messaging and negotiations. This leads to inevitable delays, warbled messaging or directions, compromise strategies and secondary conflicts. At least as far as specific conflicts and negotiations are concerned, and even if only for a specific purpose, keep the internal squabbles out of the negotiating room. The Trump social media team is also unparalleled in size, speed and reach, with an operationally simple identity / value message that they get out before, during and after specific conflicts. These are all modern conflict tools, and you need to compete – clearly, effectively, across a wide range of platforms and identity groups. Your conflict team and involved officials should be trained in these dynamics as part of their conflict competency, and this should include high-level social media literacy and skills, with a pointed evasion of scattered, confusing and contradictory messaging in high level conflict negotiations such as these. Modern conflict need more than just press releases.
10. Forget about compromise
Outdated, inexperienced or unskilled government officials have an unfortunate fondness for compromise deals. These meet-you-in-the-middle deals are often simple excuses for poor conflict skills and competencies, reaching for the simple, risk-free resolution while leaving much value on the table. While there is a place for compromise in modern conflict negotiations, Trump’s “Art of the deal” does not run on those lines in reality. The conflict team and involved officials should be trained in the negative aspects of compromise, and the alternatives of creative solutions and problem solving, that is in addition to simply using conflict management skills to get what you want.
Assessment and conclusion
The few days following on president Trump’s early February attack on South Africa for alleged land expropriation and other offences have again highlighted our own internal insecurities, unresolved conflicts and outdated conflict negotiation skill levels. We are, in this shape, absolutely easy pickings for the Trump 2.0 team. As with all big conflicts, this also of course presents South Africa with an opportunity, a chance to upgrade our teams and skills, and to prepare ourselves for what lies ahead in the next few years as the new power realignments guide, bully and shape the new world that will arise afterwards, the Cold War 2.0 if you will. This is an early warning, it is a clarion call for urgent improvement and a fresh look at the risks and opportunities that we have before us.
That window of opportunity will not be open very long.
Postscript on the US main conflict negotiation goals
As an addendum to the abovementioned strategies I set out a briefly summarised list of what I believe to be, at least at this stage, the real US aims and goals with these conflict negotiations and public attacks, as this returns our focus to where it belongs, away from the vaudeville acts that hide these true intentions:
1. Reducing US spending, while getting to blame others or justify such cancelations (see Mexico, Canada examples);
2. Reshaping US policy for years to come in a multipolar world, a reality which the US now concedes;
3. Sending strong messages of intent and ability early on, intended mainly for other, bigger opponents later on;
4. Shaping and confirming several in-group narratives for crucial internal political moves that must come in the next few years;
5. Showing the small kids which team to pick in the escalating world power realignments between mainly the US and China, and including Russia to a lesser extent;
6. Redefining the use and content of power for US consumption, given retreats in other, more conventional arenas;
7. Nearly as an aside, trying to get some concessions from the opponent that may not have been forthcoming under conventional negotiations. There are a few other, more minor strategies, and these will of course develop and change as internal and global conflicts shape the Trump administration in the next few years, but for now, this is a workable list of the moving parts to keep an eye on.
Summary of main sources, references and suggested reading
1. Dangerous Magic: essays on conflict resolution in South Africa, by Andre Vlok, Paradigm Media (2022), especially Chapter 4, dealing with identity and value conflicts
2. Relevant articles for your general consideration and their source material can be found at www.conflict-conversations.co.za
(Andre Vlok can be contacted on andre@conflict1.co.za for any further information)
(c) Andre Vlok
February 2025